The latest S&P Global Mobility report forecasts a 2.8% increase in global light vehicle sales for 2024, primarily driven by the ongoing replenishment of vehicle inventories and improvements in the supply chain. However, this positive trend is tempered by significant headwinds, including high vehicle prices, tightening credit conditions and fluctuating consumer confidence.
Colin Couchman, executive director of global light vehicle forecasting at S&P Global Mobility, said the industry is transitioning from clear supply-side risks to a "murkier macro-led demand environment."
2023 saw a notable uptick in light vehicle sales, with a projected 8.9% increase from the previous year, nearly reaching 86.0 million units globally. This surge was largely fueled by the normalization of supply chains and robust inventory restocking.
Regionally, Europe is forecasted to see a 2.9% year-over-year increase in 2024, with lingering economic recession risks and easing pent-up demand. The U.S. market is expected to grow by 2.0%, with consumer affordability remaining a significant concern. In contrast, mainland China projects a more robust 4.2% increase, bolstered by incentives for New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) and improving consumer confidence.
The production outlook for 2024 suggests a shift towards a more traditional demand-driven model. Global light vehicle production is predicted to slightly decrease by 0.4%, reflecting the industry's adjustment to a post-crisis equilibrium.
Mark Fulthorpe, another executive director at S&P Global Mobility, noted the rapid restocking might collide with actual consumer demand levels, creating challenges for vehicle manufacturers.
Electrification continues to be a pivotal aspect of the industry's future. The report forecasts significant growth in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales, with an expected 16.2% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2024, a substantial increase from the 12% market share in 2023, reflecting the industry's ongoing commitment to electrification despite short-term uncertainties.
