Far Horizon Timeline
Carey said 2022 was “a very different year for most of us; let’s not think for one moment that we’re going back to 2019, because that ship has sailed.”
2023 will bring a new set of challenges, as OEMs double down on safe and proper repairs, insurers introduce new claims solutions, MSOs continue to grow and costs continue to pick up, meaning shops will need to pick vendor partners carefully.
Looking ahead to the next three years, Carey said 2024 will be when “the fallout begins,” as staffing reaches critical levels, shops begin closing and new technology speeds up first notice of loss and intake.
In 2025, a “new market emerges,” Carey said, riding a wave of new vehicles with new technologies, and finally, in 2026, vehicle data will dictate repairs and OEM-embedded insurance will lead to a change in bill payers. If certified repairs are not yet required by 2026, the industry will be solidly on the path to that, Carey said.
After the presentation, an attendee asked Carey what he would do today if he were a shop owner.
First, Carey said, he’d develop an agreement with current staff making it beneficial for them to stay and challenging to leave.
Next, he would look at how he brings in vehicles for repairs, and any “key triggers” for not accepting one.
And finally, he would be “watching like a hawk for opportunities to work closer with insurers, suppliers and OEMs.”
“Take a good step back every now and then and identify: ‘What should I be doing differently to be more efficient?’” Carey advised. “Without a question, people, capacity and innovation.”
Abby Andrews