“These two lists illustrate some of the intangibles of crash risk,” Harkey said. “We can measure horsepower and weight and test for crashworthiness. However, the deadly record of these muscle cars suggests that their history and marketing may be encouraging more aggressive driving.”
The Big Picture
Zooming out highlights more general trends.
The average driver death rate for all 2020 and equivalent models increased to 38 deaths per million registered vehicle years, compared with 36 for 2017 models. That’s a further increase from a low of 28 for 2011 models following a steady decline since the 1970s. The rise is consistent with a larger number of U.S. traffic fatalities over the four-year period covered by this study, compared with the previous one. From 2018 to 2021 there were 155,136 fatalities, compared with 147,599 from 2015 to 2018.
Minicars had the highest driver death rates, averaging 153 deaths per million registered vehicle years. Very large luxury cars had the lowest, averaging only four deaths. In contrast, very large pickups had the highest other-driver death rates, averaging 121 deaths, while small sports cars had the fewest other-driver deaths, averaging only 11 per million registered vehicle years.
The average other-driver death rate for all 2020 and equivalent models was 53 deaths per million registered vehicle years. There are more other-driver fatalities than driver fatalities because these newer models are more crashworthy than many of their crash counterparts, which come from the wider U.S. fleet, made up of mostly older vehicles.
“Overall, newer vehicles are much safer than those of the past,” said Chuck Farmer, vice president of research and statistical services, who calculated the rates. “But, unfortunately, there are still major differences in the levels of protection that various models provide. There was also a spike in speeding-related fatalities during the pandemic, which may help explain why we find so many muscle cars among the worst performers for this period.”
The driver death rates for 2020 models range widely from zero for four models to 205 for the worst performer, the 2020 Mitsubishi Mirage G4. A four-door minicar, the Mirage G4 is not equipped with a front crash prevention system and earns a marginal rating in the IIHS driver-side small overlap crash test and an acceptable rating in the original side test.
Other-driver death rates range from six for the Buick Encore four-wheel-drive, a small luxury SUV, to 189 for the Ram 3500 Crew Cab long bed pickup.
Source: IIHS
Abby Andrews