To paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of the internal combustion engine's imminent demise have been greatly exaggerated. Sure, we've all seen the headlines. For the past several years, all major automakers have announced ambitious electric vehicle (EV) goals to do their part in warding off climate change. Plus, stung by rising fuel costs, more and more consumers are opting for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). But let's look at the facts.
It's certainly true that from the European Union (EU) to the U.S., the race to curtail and even phase out ICE vehicles is on. The Biden Administration has made no secret that it sees full vehicle electrification as an essential step in carbon reduction. As of press time, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was said to be finalizing even more stringent limits on light-vehicle tailpipe emissions.
Of course, in America, politics are also local. California and 16 other states have either banned or are moving to ban some or all ICE-powered vehicles. (California's ICE ban, which takes full effect in 2035, applies to new-vehicle sales only.) A few U.S. cities and counties are even weighing limits or total bans on gas stations, although other states and localities are pushing back and severing themselves from California's zero-emissions targets.
Apart from legislation, market incentives also play a major role in the OEM drive toward an electrified future. For one, EV programs attract capital investors. Plus, EVs require fewer parts, meaning manufacturers can streamline sourcing, production, labor forces and their associated costs. But despite this and all the media hype, there are signs that a new realism is setting in.
Reality Check
In December 2022, Toyota Motor Corp. President Akio Toyoda caused a stir when he openly questioned an EV-only strategy in the quest for carbon-neutral automobiles. In remarks made to reporters in Thailand, Toyoda argued a sound strategy should include hybrids and hydrogen-powered vehicles.
Identifying himself as among a "silent majority" within the auto industry, Toyoda was quoted by The Wall Street Journal as saying, "That silent majority is wondering whether EVs are really OK to have as a single option. But they think it's the trend so they can't speak out loudly."
Other automakers appear to share this viewpoint. Porsche recently announced it had powered a 911 with a new e-fuel developed from air and water. Produced in Chile by the Highly Innovative Fuels company, the fuel is made by capturing atmospheric carbon and combining it with hydrogen taken from water to create methane. The fuel can be used in virtually any ICE vehicle, and Porsche plans to continue experimenting with such alternatives.
Meanwhile, while remaining committed to its growing EV program, General Motors has tempered its sales targets, citing challenges with battery production. And earlier this year, Ford disclosed it expected to lose $3 billion on its EV program in 2023---news The Wall Street Journal called "a reminder of how far traditional auto makers have to go in turning their EV portfolios profitable."
Even the environmentally hardline EU seems to be rethinking its stance. Responding to resistance from member-states Germany, Italy and Poland, the EU recently modified a total ban on ICE vehicles by 2035 to allow for those running on synthetic fuels.
According to SEMA Market Research Director Gavin Knapp, the simple truth is ICE-powered vehicles will be with us for a long time to come. "The thing to keep in mind about EVs is when people talk about them being 50%-100% of the market, they're talking about new-vehicle sales, which will still be a small portion of the vehicles on the road," he observed. "Even if production were to ramp up really fast in 2030, EVs would still only represent 15% to maybe 20% of vehicles in operation."
Moreover, major obstacles remain to widespread EV adoption, including building the required infrastructure and, more importantly, gaining consumer acceptance. Lately, mainstream publications have been rife with stories of consumer frustrations with EV range and towing capacities, not to mention charging options. For these and other reasons, SEMA Market Research projects that by 2035, EVs will account for a mere 39% of OEM new-vehicle sales.
Aftermarket Opportunities
Given all the above, many specialty-equipment manufacturers say their long-term plans call for continued investment in ICE applications. They envision further refinements in engine performance, efficiency and emissions reduction. In fact, some futurists believe that by 2035 the total carbon footprint of an ICE vehicle may nearly match that of an EV---especially when you factor in the rare-earth mining, spent battery disposal and other not-so-eco-friendly activities associated with electrification.
"The automotive aftermarket, for as long as it's been around, has driven innovation---specifically towards efficiency around the internal-combustion engine," said Ian Lehn, Boostane owner and former chair of the SEMA Emerging Trends and Technology Network (ETTN). "I look at vehicle technology as a spectrum, and no one technology is going to be the silver bullet for our transportation demands."
Lehn's specific interest is in developing e-fuels, which he believes offer an ideal carbon-reducing solution for the millions of ICE vehicles that will remain in operation for decades to come. "I enjoy synthetic fuels because I think they're a fresh perspective on the internal combustion engine, which still has a lot of capability for gains and efficiency, offsetting its carbon footprint, and being a continued option for long-haul trucking and driving and more," he said.
The problem, he said, is the current focus on EVs discourages the investment needed to make e-fuels viable. "A lot of the advancement and innovation has come from private industry," he explained. "There haven't been any huge, sweeping subsidies from the government. You know, just use this credit card when you go to pay at the gas station, and you'll get $3 back. I mean, it's expensive, but so were electric vehicles when they first came out. But the government subsidized them to make them affordable. E-fuels haven't been able to enjoy that type of favorable treatment, so adoption has been slow."
Ultimately, Lehn believes an electrification-only stance inhibits real progress toward carbon reduction. "If people put blinders on and say we need to just grind ahead on only EVs, and we leave all of these internal-combustion engines to continue to operate at current efficiencies, it's going to be a bigger issue down the road," he said.
Abby Andrews